The president of Suffolk University Political Research Center made a bit of a splash earlier this week when he said that the center had stopped polling in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida — three swing states.
“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red,” David Paleologos said. ”We’re focusing on the remaining states.”
He later told Huffington Post: Paleologos said that Obama has consistently polled at 47 percent of the vote in the three states, making a win for him “not impossible, but highly improbable,” especially in North Carolina. The state, which Obama carried in 2008, is currently trending red, and several pollsters agree that it’s one of the strongest battleground states for Romney.”
The good folks at the Huffington Post asked Elon University Poll Director Ken Fernandez his thoughts.
“We’ve seen the lead changes in North Carolina a dozen times and results have almost always been within the margin of error. I don’t think you will see many well-funded polling organizations pulling out of North Carolina, Florida, or Virginia,” he said.
Fernandez noted that pollsters with limited time and money might choose to focus on different states, but “it seems premature to make a methodological decision based on a single campaign event and poll change,” he said.
Fernandez pointed to 1948, when Gallup stopped polling two weeks before the election and predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman. “When you make such a decision with incomplete information, you are increasing your chances of being wrong, very wrong.”
The Elon University Poll isn’t abandoning North Carolina. It goes into the field with another statewide poll later this month.
– John Robinson