Elon University Poll

Despite the ongoing debate about gun control in Washington, it’s unlikely gun laws will change in North Carolina this year. Republicans control the Legislature and the governor’s mansion, and they aren’t showing any interest in opening a discussion on guns.

We have asked before about gun laws. Last February, 93 percent of respondents in the state favored requiring background checks for everyone buying a gun, including those sold privately. In addition, 83 percent supported a waiting period.

This month, we asked: “Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘There should be more legal restrictions on handguns in our society.’”

The response: 56.8 percent agreed and 39.5 percent disagreed. And it breaks down politically as you might expect: 80 percent of Democrats agree, 53 percent of Independents agree, and 37 percent of Republicans agree.

It also splits by race: 77 percent of African Americans support it vs. 50 percent of whites. And by gender: 69 percent of women agree vs. 43 percent of men.

Should the elected officials in Raleigh take up gun laws? Either way, it’s politically risky. Each time we have polled on it, N.C. residents, in their wisdom, have counseled on moderation….on both sides.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday shows that most Americans think it is possible to enact new laws without infringing on gun rights, and overwhelming majorities support expanded background checks at gun shows and for online gun sales.

– John Robinson

A House committee is expected to approve a bill requiring voters to produce photo IDs to cast a ballot. In February, the Elon University Poll found that 72 percent of North Carolinians support the idea of photo IDs to vote.

That approval of one change in the voting process doesn’t extend to supporting a shortening of the time people have to vote early. In its April polling, the Elon University Poll found that 58.8 percentage of respondents oppose a bill to shorten early voting by one week.

The Republican legislator said the bill is to save money, but opponents say it is intended to reduce the turnout and would effectively make it harder to vote.

In North Carolina, our poll indicates that the initiative doesn’t have strong support from Republicans (50 percent opposed), Democrats (72 percent opposed) or Independents (58 percent opposed).

An M.I.T study indicated that non-white voters waited longer in lines than white voters in the 2012 election. In our poll, only 18 percent of African Americans supported the change.

In our poll, the strongest opposition to the change came from among 18-30-year olds.

Reducing the time period for early voting is a Republican initiative in many states. According to the Houston Chronicle, eight states are considering proposals to reduce the number of days in which people can vote early. Two states – Florida and Ohio — are in the midst of court challenges.

It’s difficult to tell if this bill has much chance in North Carolina. It is, however, a Republican-controlled legislature. Still, any legislative action that takes convenience and flexibility away from people — even if it would save money – is rarely a popular gambit.

– John Robinson

Motorcyclists feel strongly about whether they should wear a helmet.

Right now, a bill is moving through the legislature that would allow motorcyclists 21 and older to ride without a helmet if they have at least $10,000 in medical coverage. It is, supporters say, a matter of personal liberty. Opponents – those who support the law as it is, which requires a helmet - say it’s a matter of personal safety.

Most North Carolinians responding in the Elon University Poll oppose changing the law. It isn’t even close. In fact, 73.9 percent oppose allowing riders to go without a helmet versus 21.2 percent supporting the change.

Even among the 148 motorcycle riders who responded to the poll, 68 of them were opposed to changing the law. And even though the bill was introduced by a Republican, this issue doesn’t have wide support from Republicans (27 percent), Democrats (13 percent) or Independents (22 percent).

“A major thread in helmet law attitudes does seem to be a prioritization of personal liberty,” Assistant Poll Director Jason Husser said. “Those who supported the helmet law change also wanted to increase interstate speed limits. That said almost no group wants this change- 18-30 year old males still opposed nearly 2 to 1.”

In Michigan, there was an 18% rise in motorcycle-related fatalities, an increase which occurred over a period when the state repealed its helmet law last April. According to the Detroit News, insurance companies and medical groups want the state’s motorcycle helmet requirement reinstated. They cited a  University of Michigan study showing it would have prevented 26 deaths and 49  injuries last year.

Perhaps because North Carolinians are anticipating being able to drive 75 mph (legally), they don’t trust themselves going that fast while motorcyclists are “open” to the elements.

– John Robinson

Have you driven on the interstate lately? Next time you do, count how many cars and trucks are actually going the speed limit. (That will be easier than counting how many cars and trucks are exceeding it.)

It’s significant because the State Senate approved legislation that permits the state Department of Transportation to designate some highways with a speed limit of 75 miles per hour. The House now takes it up.

According to the latest Elon University Poll, most North Carolina will like the increase in the speed limit. In fact, 57.7 percent of respondents approve of a speed limit increase and 39.9 percent oppose.

“This issue has major generational and gender gaps,” Assistant Poll Director Jason Husser said. “Support was 18 points higher for men than women and 35 points higher for 18-30 year olds than those 65 or older.

“However, it’s one of those rare bipartisan issues with majority support in both parties – 52 percent of Democrats and 60 percent Republicans want to raise the limit.”

Now, assuming it becomes law, there are two major questions looming:

* Will people interpret a 75-mph speed limit to mean they can drive five to 10 mph over that? Most definitely.

* Will the accident rate go up? Most probably.

If it becomes law, North Carolina would become the second state on the East Coast, after Maine, to let some drivers go 75 mph. Can you imagine I-95 when the speed limit is even faster? Maybe toll booths at the state line will slow traffic. Momentarily.

– John Robinson

As the state legislature debates teacher tenure, it continues to struggle with the issue of evaluating school performance. Last year, the State Department of Public Instruction was instructed to give grades of A to F to each public school. However, the state House is considering delaying that grading system until the 2014-15 school year.

But we asked  North Carolina residents how they would grade the schools in their communities.

A — 11.4 percent

B — 38.9 percent

C — 26.5 percent

D — 8.8 percent

F — 4.7 percent

Not bad. A little more than 10 percent with As and 13.5 percent with Ds and Fs. Probably not unlike the typical grading pattern in the typical classroom. Grade inflation? Maybe a teacher can weigh in here in the comments.

– John Robinson

There’s good news and bad news for North Carolina teachers in the April Elon University Poll.

First, the bad news: 54 percent of respondents said they oppose granting tenure to teachers after the four-year trial period. Forty percent support tenure.

The good news? Seventy-four percent of respondents said that teachers aren’t paid enough. Seventeen percent said teachers are paid about right, and only 2 percent – 2! — said teachers are paid too much.

It’s a political issue now because Republicans in the state House and Senate want to change the tenure laws. They just can’t agree how. Last week, a Senate committee voted to eliminate tenure, while bipartisan House legislation is designed to weaken it, but keep it.

The state’s main teacher lobbying group, the NCAE, opposes changing the law, saying that there is an effective evaluation system already in place.  (North Carolina isn’t the only state looking at teacher tenure.)

Breaking the numbers down, support for tenure starts strong with those 18-30 and declines steadily as those polled get older. It also starts strong with those making less than $50,000 and declines as the respondents’ pay gets higher. African Americans support tenure 54 percent to 30 percent; Whites oppose it, 60 percent to 34 percent.

But when it comes to teacher compensation, political affiliation, gender, race or age don’t matter. Respondents by large margins think teachers are underpaid. We asked respondents to guess the average salary for a teacher and most of them came pretty close. As Assistant Poll Director Jason Husser said, “Even those who wildly overestimated teacher pay thought teachers in North Carolina were paid too little.”

Given the state’s budget situation, it is doubtful that teachers will get a substantial raise this year. Presumably those supporting the elimination of tenure would make the case that the tenure debate has little to do with salary levels. That’s probably true.

But the sentiment of N.C. residents seems clear — teachers are underpaid and should be paid more.

– John Robinson

The General Assembly has picked up a bit of steam since our February poll.

Thirty-seven percent of North Carolinians surveyed this month approved of the Legislature’s performance, up 4 percentage points from February.

It may not seem like much, but bear in mind this has been a controversial month for the elected officials in Raleigh. The legislators are debating bills that would cut the days of early voting, double the length of the waiting period before a couple could get divorced and eliminate teacher tenure. A bill that might have established a state religion – roundly criticized as unconstitutional – was withdrawn, but not before it got national publicity. And not in a good way.

Meanwhile,  they approved legislation that permanently cuts unemployment benefits for while temporarily taxing businesses until a state debt is paid off. And they have discussed — since tabled — the possibility of closing one or more of the UNC-system campuses.

But if there is widespread opposition among North Carolina residents to any of those actions, it isn’t coming through in the polling results. Except, of course, that 39 percent of North Carolinians who responded said they disapprove of how the General Assembly is doing its job.

Because Republicans control the Senate and the House, it’s not surprising that 46 percent of the Republicans we surveyed approve of the Legislature’s performance. Only 30 percent of Democrats do. Men also rated the Legislature higher — 42 percent approval — than women — 32 percent.

A more surprising result may be the age of those who support the General Assembly. Among respondents 18-30, 49 percent approved of their performance, the highest by far of any of the age groups.

Two things to look for in the coming months:

* Once the General Assembly passes legislation, it takes a little while for residents to realize that something is different. How they respond to that will determine how highly people think of their elected officials.

* The General Assembly still has a budget process to go through. If popular services are cut in a measurable way and people feel the cuts, you know what will happen.

– John Robinson