Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

Wednesday’s trending topics

The young adult vote — Harvard University surveyed 18-29 year-olds and 43% said they plan to vote for President Obama and 26% said they will vote for Mitt Romney. This is not the same but in February, the Elon University Poll showed that in the 18-34 age group, 48 percent of North Carolinians approve of how Obama is handling the presidency and 38 percent disapprove.

Past, present and possibly future first ladiesMichelle Obama and Ann Romney outscore their husbands in personal popularity in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, while Hillary Clinton, for her part, has hit a new high in favorability data stretching back to her entry on the national stage 20 years ago.

Marriage Amendment — Opinions of likely voters are shifting on the same-sex marriage ban amendment to the N.C. Constitution. PPP reports that 54% of likely voters say they support the amendment, which is down from its earlier polls. The Elon Poll earlier this month showed that 61% of North Carolinians say they oppose an amendment. The Elon poll surveys North Carolina residents, not just likely voters.

– John Robinson

Thursday’s trending topics

Romney — Gallup reports that Mitt Romney’s support is solid among Republicans 55 years and older and strong among liberal and moderate Republicans. But he needs to shore up the support of Midwestern, young, highly religious, and conservative Republicans.

Obama — Gallup also reports that President Obama’s job approval rating in Latin America is at a new low (47%) ahead of the Sixth Summit of the Americas taking place in Cartagena, Colombia, this week.

Politics — Americans don’t know nearly as much as the political positions of the two parties as you might think. For instance, While 67% correctly identify the Democratic Party as more supportive of raising taxes on higher-income people to reduce the budget deficit, far fewer (53%) identify the Republican Party as more in favor of reducing the size and scope of government.

Faith – Grey Matter Research asked Americans if the Christian faith had a positive, negative, or no real impact on 16 different areas of society. Strong majorities (72%) said Christianity is good for helping the poor and for raising children with good morals. Around half (52%) said Christianity helps keep the U.S. as a “strong nation,” and nearly as many (49) said the faith had a positive impact on the role of women in society.

– John Robinson

Washington Post/ABC News poll reflects the sentiments of North Carolinians

The Washington Post/ABC News poll released today shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney on women’s issues, international affairs, middle class protection and health care. Obama also is seen as more likable, and he has a huge advantage with female voters.

The national poll results reflect trends the Elon University Poll saw in its two most recent surveys.

Likability.

Female voters.

Foreign affairs.

And, the Washington Post/ABC News poll results suggest that on the most important issue to Americans — the economy — the GOP has some opportunities because Obama’s support there is weak. Our poll of North Carolina residents indicated the same thing.

Bear in mind, the general election is seven months away — an eternity in politics.

– John Robinson

Monday’s trending topics

Race — A Newsweek/Daily Beast poll found that 72% of whites and 89% of African Americans believe the country is divided by race, but only 19% of whites say that racism is a big problem vs. 60 % of blacks.

Presidential politicsIndependents like President Barack Obama better but feel ideologically closer to Mitt Romney, according to a new poll of a dozen battleground states released Monday. (North Carolina is included in the poll.)

More presidential politicsPresident Barack Obama’s job approval rating averaged 46% in March, up from 45% in January and February, and significantly improved over his term-low 41% monthly averages recorded last summer and fall.

Economy and presidential politics — Voters overwhelmingly trust their own judgment on economic matters more than the judgment of either President Obama or Mitt Romney.

Thursday’s trending topics

E-books — 21% of Americans say they’ve read an e-book in the past year, a jump from 17% two months earlier. Those who have taken the plunge into reading e-books stand out in almost every way from other kinds of readers. Foremost, they are relatively avid readers of books in all formats: 88% of those who read e-books in the past 12 months also read printed books.2 Compared with other book readers, they read more books.

Baseball — The season has started but not THAT many baseball fans actually will attend a Major League game. Slightly more than half don’t intend to visit the baseball stadium this year. Blame ticket prices. 

New York — Looks like a Romney state in the GOP primary.

The GOP sees an opening on foreign policy

Yesterday, I mentioned that Mitt Romney sees opportunities to challenge President Obama on foreign policy. With good reason, according to an article earlier this month in the Washington Post.

The erosion in Afghanistan, coupled with the prospect of a nuclear Iran, create the possibility that the November election could swing on something no one expected: foreign policy.

“Could” is the operative term, however. An analysis of exit polling conducted in the Republican presidential contests held to date suggests that the economy is by far the issue on most voters’ minds.

It’s not just Romney who sees the possibility of grabbing the foreign policy mantle. Rick Santorum does, too.

The Post article points out that if the economy continues to recover, then that will be a tougher issue to get traction on. Republicans may turn to another issue on which to attack the president’s leadership. Foreign policy — Afghanistan, a nuclear Iran and Russia — may just be it.

– John Robinson

Domestic policy: A lack of confidence

Are North Carolinians confident that any of the men running for president can handle the country’s domestic affairs well?

No, not so much.

President Obama gets the highest marks — 38% — but that’s hardly anything to write home about. Here’s how it breaks down:

                                                     Confident                    Little confidence

Barack Obama                            38%                                     44%

Newt Gingrich                            30%                                     50%

Rick Santorum                            29%                                     44%

Mitt Romney                                28%                                     38%

Ron Paul                                        24%                                      45%

Obama is paying for the condition of the economy. With high-and-still-rising gas prices, people are worried. The president has been “in charge” for three years and people are expecting things to be better. Consequently, Obama must be accountable for that. But the GOP contenders aren’t tracking any better. They haven’t been able to explain to North Carolinians in clear, understandable terms how they would turn things around. 

Opportunities abound for the GOP if they can come to North Carolina and spell out an economic policy that resonates with citizens.

(Much of what I wrote in the post about foreign policy immediately below this one applies here, too.)

– John Robinson

Foreign policy: A lack of confidence

North Carolina residents express lukewarm confidence at best in the candidates running for the White House this fall, according to the latest Elon University Poll, though incumbent President Barack Obama receives higher marks for handling both domestic and foreign policy issues than his Republican rivals.

Ain’t that the truth!

While Obama inspires more confidence in his ability to handle foreign policy issues, those who say they have little or no confidence in him is about the same — 42% express confidence vs. 43% that don’t. A statistical tie.

It’s much worse with the GOP contenders.

                                           Confident                     Little confidence

Newt Gingrich                   28%                                 51%

Mitt Romney                      24%                                  41%

Rick Santorum                   22%                                  50%

Ron Paul                               18%                                   55%

By far, Romney has the most people who rate him smack in the middle between “not confident” and “great deal of confidence.” Twenty-nine percent of the respondents said basically that when it comes to handling foreign policy, Romney will do OK.

Obama is polling better for three reasons:

1. He has a foreign policy track record. Bin Laden and other terrorists have been killed during his administration. He spoke out during the Arab Spring. And he grabs the headlines when he talks about Iran, Afghanistan and the Middle East. People may not like the positions he takes, but they see how he handles things. Only 2% of the respondents said they didn’t know. (The poll was in the field during the news coverage of Obama’s comment to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev about greater “flexibility” on negotiations regarding missile defense after the election.)

2. On the Republican side, people’s political loyalties are dispersed among the four candidates. Once a nominee is selected, the confidence factor will consolidate. And, as ABC reports, Romney sees opportunity to challenge the president.

3. Obama has visited North Carolina almost as often as a tractor-trailer making the weekly Florida to New York run on I95. Republicans have been busy campaigning elsewhere. North Carolinians want to see and hear candidates in person…or at least read that the candidate has come to their part of the state. 

– John Robinson

Wednesday’s trending topics

WisconsinWith just one week until the April 3 Wisconsin presidential primary, the Marquette Law School Poll shows Governor Mitt Romney with a 39 percent to 31 percent lead over Senator Rick Santorum, reversing Santorum’s lead in February polls.

Republicans — Sixty-one percent of Republicans think it’s time for Ron Paul to drop out of the presidential race, and 60% think Newt Gingrich should. Related, Gingrich is curtailing campaign stops — he canceled an N.C. stop this week — and is laying off staff.

Economy — Economic issues, including gas prices, the national debt and unemployment, worry Americans the most.

Big news–  The top story last week was the shooting death of Trayvon Martin. Twenty-five percent of Americans said they followed that story more closely than the presidential elections (16%) or the economy (15%).

– John Robinson

Friday’s trending topics

U.S.Mitt Romney’s national support among Republican voters has surged in recent days, coincident with his decisive victory in the Illinois primary and a prominent endorsement from Jeb Bush. Romney’s support has increased to 40%, the first time a candidate has reached that level in this campaign, and his lead over Rick Santorum is back into double digits after narrowing to four percentage points on March 20.

Louisiana — Rick Santorum is at 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.

Michigan– President Obama leads Romney in a poll of likely Michigan voters, 49 to 43%.