Elon Poll in the news

You may have heard that we released poll results of likely voters today. Here’s the first paragraph: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a lead over President Barack Obama in the battleground state of North Carolina as the incumbent president’s party comes to Charlotte this week for the Democratic National Convention, according to the latest Elon University Poll conducted in partnership with The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.

Rather than comment on it now, let me direct you to some coverage the poll results got today. These are in no special order. I’ll post more tomorrow.

BloombergBusinessweekPresident Barack Obama has an uphill battle to win North Carolina again, though he’s keeping the race close enough to make Republican nominee Mitt Romney spend money in a state that Romney must carry to win the Nov. 6 election.

The Washington Post— “One of the most important groups that powered Obama to victory in 2008 was young voters, who supported him overwhelmingly. Those under age 30 went to Obama by 74 to 26 percent according to exit polls. This was the difference maker – he lost among every other age group. In the new Elon poll, Obama is much softer among young voters, winning by just 58 to 34 percent.”

PBS “Part of the reason for Romney’s lead: A 52 percent to 39 percent spread when it comes to which candidate would do a better job of handling the economy. But the GOP nominee has almost no support with African American voters, who make up 22 percent of the state’s population. The president gets the support of 89 percent of black voters compared to 1 percent for Romney.”

The National Journal“As Democrats gather in Charlotte this week for their nominating convention, a new poll released early Monday shows President Obama trailing slightly in the host state of North Carolina, where he is facing a significant deficit on the economy, the most important issue to a plurality of the Tar Heel State’s voters.”

The Los Angeles Times — “Obama won North Carolina by a very thin margin and largely due to a high turnout of minority voters. If Obama is going to win the state again, that level of turnout will likely have to repeat itself,” said Elon pollsters Kenneth Fernandez and Jason Husser.

The New York Times 538 blog — “This is their (Elon’s) first survey of the state this year so there are no trendlines for comparison, but since our forecast model had been showing Mr. Romney as a 1- or 2-point favorite in North Carolina before the conventions, this result seems fairly consistent with a 2- or 3-point bounce for him.”

Talking Points Memo — While Romney’s advantage isn’t huge, it’s a divergence from a different survey conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) and released late Sunday night, which showed a dead heat between Obama and Romney in North Carolina.

The News & Observer/Charlotte Observer— “I would have to say that is a small, modest bump,” said poll director Kenneth Fernandez.

NPR — “North Carolina is particularly interesting to keep an eye on because it embodies the ongoing transition of a Southern state, electorally and culturally speaking, to a mid-Atlantic state.”

And other notes:




Here is what the News & Observer, which co-sponsored the poll with the Charlotte Observer, played the story this morning. (Image courtesy of the Newseum.)

For full polling results, go here.

— John Robinson

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