Today’s polls: Obama gains momentum

A lot of interesting poll results to parse through today. It seems as if President Obama has the momentum, but follow the links and decide for yourself.

Gallup reports that registered voters in the swing states, which includes North Carolina, are essentially divided in their support of Obama (48%) and Gov. Romney (46%). One in five of the voters say they are either undecided or could change their minds. “The fact that the swing-state vote is competitive, with at least a slight advantage for Obama each month since March, may mean Obama is currently in a stronger position to win than is Romney. That current advantage could be erased, however, if Republicans vote at higher rates than Democrats, as is usually the case, and if Romney can convince proportionately more undecided and persuadable voters in swing states than Obama can to support his candidacy in the remaining weeks of the campaign.”

Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times poll looks at three battleground states — N.C. is not one — and finds Obama leading among likely voters. The poll also suggests that most likely voters in those three states — Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin — think Romney’s policies favor the rich, rather than the middle class.

Next up, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows the candidates even.

“Women broadly back the president (55 percent for Obama vs. 39 percent for Romney) while men favor the GOP ticket (53 percent for Romney to 40 percent for Obama). The gender gap tightens some in the suburbs, where women tilt Obama by a narrower 51 percent to 45 percent margin, while suburban men favor Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent.

“White voters without college degrees favor Romney by more than 30 points over Obama (63 percent back Romney compared with 30 percent behind Obama), a steeper split than the 18-point margin John McCain held over Obama among the group in 2008. White voters with college degrees are about evenly split (50 percent Obama to 48 percent Romney), about on par with 2008.”

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll puts Obama up by 5 percentage points among likely voters. The Washington Post has a good synopsis/analysis of the poll results. People seem to feel better about the economy and the direction of the country. Obama is losing support on his foreign policy, but they think he’s more prepared to lead the country then Romney.

Finally, a poll of small business owners by George Washington University School of Political Management and “Nearly half of small business owners (47 percent) plan to vote for a second term for the president, compared to 39 percent who plan to vote for Mitt Romney.”

— John Robinson



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