State polls or national polls?

“There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn’t know what he’s doing.”

That’s Nate Silver, host of the influential FiveThirtyEight blog of the New York Times. He explains the issues surrounding national polls that say one thing and state polls that indicate another.

— John Robinson

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