The real results to that question won’t be known for awhile (if ever). But overnight results are in.
CBS: 50% of uncommitted voters gave it to Vice President Joe Biden and 31% said Rep. Paul Ryan won. (19% said it was a tie.) “The percentage of voters who say they believe they can relate to Biden spiked from 34 percent before the debate to 55 percent; 48 percent think Ryan is relatable, up from 31 percent before the debate.”
CNN: Among voters, it went 48% Ryan, 44% Biden, (within the margin of error). “Seven in ten said Biden was seen as spending more time attacking his opponent, and that may be a contributing factor in Ryan’s 53%-43% advantage on being more likable. Ryan also had a slight advantage on being more in touch with the problems of average Americans.”
What does it mean? Well, not a whole lot. But satirist Andy Borowitz of the New Yorker had one faux pollster’s take: “In a poll of Democratic voters taken immediately following Thursday night’s Vice-Presidential debate, a wide majority said they wanted Vice-President Joe Biden to appear in all remaining 2012 debates.”
— John Robinson
Who won last night’s presidential debate?
Overnight polls say Gov. Romney in a landslide.
CNN— “…67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the faceoff, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious….While nearly half of debate watchers said the showdown didn’t make them more likely to vote for either candidate, 35% said the debate made them more likely to vote for Romney while only 18% said the faceoff made them more likely to vote to re-elect the president.”
CBS — “…46 percent of voters gave the economy-centric debate to Romney, 22 percent said they believed the president was the winner, and 32 percent called it a tie. More good news for the GOP nominee: 56 percent of those polled said they viewed Romney in a better light after watching the debate.”
And an analysis from the New York Times’ Nate Silver: “There is not a lot of empirical research on the relationship between instant reaction polls and their eventual effect on the head-to-head polls. However, these were strong numbers for Mr. Romney where comparisons to past post-debate polls are available”
His conclusion on the FiveThirtyEight blog: “My own instant reaction is that Mr. Romney may have done the equivalent of kick a field goal, perhaps not bringing the race to draw, but setting himself up in such a way that his comeback chances have improved by a material amount.”
— John Robinson
Different day, different poll. And worse ratings for President Obama.
Yesterday, the Washington Post-ABC poll reported sinking approval rates for the president. Today the New York Times-CBS poll puts an exclamation mark on those results. The question was the same as the Post asked last week and as we asked two weeks ago: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?”
The response in the Times-CBS poll: 47% disapprove, 41% approve.
The Times notes: The poll provides a statistical reminder of how unsettled and unpredictable this year’s political landscape remains. Just one month ago, Mr. Obama reached a critical benchmark by winning approval from 50 percent of Times/CBS News poll respondents, his re-election prospects lifting along with confidence that the nation was finally emerging from the aftermath of the Great Recession.
The Times-CBS poll also reflected continued disapproval of how the president is handling the economy. In its survey 54% said they disapproved and 39% approved. In the Elon Poll two weeks ago, 50% of North Carolinians disapproved and 43% approved. Since then, of course, gas prices have continued to rise.
Update: I added the word “maybe” to the headline, based on this from the Daily Kos, which has a left-of-center leaning:
Indeed, says Gallup: “Obama’s current approval rating is the highest measured since early February, and before that the highest since June 2011.”
You wouldn’t know that from reading what the NYT has to say, of course. And with PPP’s newest numbers for Daily Kos and SEIU, there are now two polls which say the president’s job approvals have moved up, not down, in recent days.
— John Robinson