Tag Archives: PPP

McCrory leads in N.C. governor’s race

The presidential race in North Carolina is not the only contest we polled likely voters on. But gubernatorial candidate Walter Dalton probably wishes it were.

If the election were held today, Republican Pat McCrory swamps Democrat Dalton among likely voters 52% to 37%. Much of that is name recognition. McCrory, who ran for governor four years ago, has it. Lt. Gov. Dalton doesn’t, at least not yet.

Dalton told the Charlotte Observer that he isn’t worried. “We have plenty of time left; people really have not focused on the race,” he said. “I really don’t go crazy about the polls right now.”

That’s probably a good thing. The conservative-leaning Civitas Poll has McCrory leading with unaffiliated voters, 46% to 29%. The Democratic-leaning PPP has it McCrory 45%-39%.

— John Robinson

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Obama-Romney in N.C.: It’s tight, still

While the Elon University Poll conducted last week reported that Gov. Romney has a 47%-to-43% lead over President Obama in North Carolina, other polls of the state reported slightly different results.

Public Policy Polling, which leans Democratic, has the race tied up, 48%-48%. A High Point University/Fox8 poll has Romney at 46% and Obama at 43%. Interestingly, a few days earlier, HPU reported poll results showing the race deadlocked at 43%. And a Civitas Poll, which leans Republican, has the race in a dead heat at 45% each.

But if you’re serious about comparing, make sure you read the methodology and the margin of error at each of the sites. They differ vastly.

— John Robinson

Same-sex marriage ban post-mortem

The latest PPP poll confirms what the Elon University Poll showed in April: that most North Carolinians think gay couples should be accorded some sort of legal recognition. Of course, the state’s voters didn’t reflect that polling sentiment at the ballot box earlier this month when the marriage amendment was easily approved. (The Elon Poll surveyed N.C. residents with no screen for likely voters.)

From PPP: In another indication that North Carolinians don’t really know what they voted for last week 55% of voters in the state say they support either gay marriage or civil unions.

In addition, while many African-American churches campaigned for passage of the amendment — perhaps sermonized is a better verb — it appears as if President Obama’s post-election support of gay marriage changed some minds. 55% of African-Americans believe same-sex couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, up 11 points from the last statewide same-sex marriage poll, conducted May 6.

Had the president made his pronouncement before the election, would it have changed the amendment result? Probably not, given that the amendment passed by 22% of the vote. Still, it is a powerful indication of the influential voice of this president.

Update: Another opinion from The Atlantic. The reality is that many in the black community are genuinely struggling to reconcile their faith and their politics, and it may take some time for them to fully evolve on marriage equality. But we shouldn’t discount the progress unfolding before our eyes. Any momentum around what has long been a stagnant issue in the black community is change we can believe in.

— John Robinson

N.C. voters speak on the marriage amendment

North Carolina voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment yesterday to ban same-sex marriage, declaring that marriage is defined as between one man and one woman.

Just to tie things up, respondents in the Elon University Poll six weeks ago indicated that they believed that gay couples should be accorded some type of legal recognition. The poll was of North Carolina residents and didn’t screen for likely voters. The margin of victory was even higher than predicted by polls of likely voters.

Yesterday, Gallup reported that 50% of Americans believe same-sex marriages should be recognized by law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages.

Will this result in North Carolina make things harder for President Obama to repeat his 2008 victory here? It’s early in the campaign and those who turn out in a general election are motivated by different things than those who vote in a primary. But it certainly appears as if Mitt Romney has another issue to campaign on when he visits N.C., particularly as the Obama Administration grapples with its position on gay rights.

— John Robinson

Marriage amendment polling results are similar

Some news articles imply that the Elon University Poll results on the “marriage amendment” differ from the PPP poll results.

Not true.

Both polls report results that indicate a majority of North Carolinians believe same-sex couples and/or civil unions deserve legal recognition.

The difference is that the Elon University Poll surveys North Carolina residents, not likely voters. PPP does surveys likely voters. When PPP asked how they will vote on the amendment – and used the specific ballot wording – most respondents said they support the amendment. When they are asked generally about same-sex marriage or civil unions, they support those, too.

The ballot wording — in which the only relationship mentioned is marriage between a man and a woman — is confusing to likely voters.

The Elon Poll asked specifically about the issue of same-sex couples, but did not use the ballot wording. We weren’t trying to find out whether the issue would pass. We were surveying residents to determine what their opinions on the issue were. 

— John Robinson

Who’s on first in N.C.?

Rasmussen polled North Carolina likely voters on Tuesday. Mitt Romney edged President Obama, 46% to 44%. The margin of error is 4.5% so it is a statistical dead heat.

PPP polled North Carolina likely voters last week. It’s got Obama on top with 49% to 44%. The margin of error is 3.1%.

Pretty close. Stay tuned. We’ll have Elon University Poll results of North Carolina residents closer to the May 8 primary.

— John Robinson

North Carolina: Keeping its options open

Two and a half weeks ago, the Elon University Poll asked North Carolinians, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?”

Forty-eight disapproved and 45% approved.

Last week, PPP asked North Carolinians,”Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?”

Forty-nine percent disapproved and 49% approved.

Not much change. With the margins of error, it’s pretty much deadlocked.

Here is a comparison of the Elon Poll and PPP on the people’s evaluation of the Republican presidential contenders

Romney is viewed favorably by 34% in Elon’s poll, 31% in PPP’s.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 32% in Elon’s poll, 36% in PPP’s.

Paul is viewed favorably by 33% in Elon’s poll, 27% in PPP’s.

Gingrich is viewed favorably by 23% in Elon’s poll, 28% in PPP’s.

It’s fair to say that it remains anyone’s race on the GOP’s side in North Carolina.

— John Robinson